Hashmat Khan, Carleton University - March 14, 2018

Posted on 2018-02-15 in News, Events, Upcoming Seminars
Mar 14, 2018 to Mar 15, 2018

March 14, 2018

Hashmat Khan, Carleton University, will present a seminar at 4:00 PM in Arts 807

Seminar Title: "The Shifts in Lead-Lag Properties of the US Business Cycle"

Abstract:  We document novel shifts in the lead-lag properties of the US business cycle since the mid-1980s that have gone unnoticed in contemporary research. Specifically,  (i) the well-known inverted-leading-indicator-property of real interest rates  has completely vanished; (ii) labour productivity switched from  leading positively  to   lagging negatively over the cycle; (iii) Labour input measures   shifted from lagging labour productivity positively to leading negatively; (iv) Unemployment rate shifted from lagging productivity negatively to leading  positively.   Many contemporary business cycle models produce counterfactual cross-correlations. Determining the underlying sources of these shifts in the lead-lag properties is challenging yet a promising direction for future research.

This seminar is part of the Department of Economics Seminar Series. Everyone is welcome.

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