Hashmat Khan, Carleton University - March 14, 2018
March 14, 2018
Hashmat Khan, Carleton University, will present a seminar at 4:00 PM in Arts 807
Seminar Title: "The Shifts in Lead-Lag Properties of the US Business Cycle"
Abstract: We document novel shifts in the lead-lag properties of the US business cycle since the mid-1980s that have gone unnoticed in contemporary research. Specifically, (i) the well-known inverted-leading-indicator-property of real interest rates has completely vanished; (ii) labour productivity switched from leading positively to lagging negatively over the cycle; (iii) Labour input measures shifted from lagging labour productivity positively to leading negatively; (iv) Unemployment rate shifted from lagging productivity negatively to leading positively. Many contemporary business cycle models produce counterfactual cross-correlations. Determining the underlying sources of these shifts in the lead-lag properties is challenging yet a promising direction for future research.
This seminar is part of the Department of Economics Seminar Series. Everyone is welcome.
Economics student recognized at Washington conference
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Lanny Zrill, HEC Montreal - October 28, 2019
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